Wow. This is a serious escalation - but it works to Israel’s advantage. Strengthening Israel without engendering sufficiently potent blowback.
I think there are three points to make.
1) The Israelis have every right and responsibility to defend their citizens from a deranged enemy that has unequivocally declared their wish is to wipe the Jewish state from the face of the earth. Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions are Israel’s problem. As the Holocaust taught, Jews have to to take seriously those intent on the Jewish extermination. Hitler’s intent was made plain from the start in his Mein Kampf. The Ayatollahs have made the destruction of Israel their major foreign policy goal. Israel must believe them.
2) I think Israel is right to say that a preemptive strike was necessary and that it had to take this threat very seriously. No-one can seriously believe that Iran’s nuclear program is for purely for civil purposes. There is no lack of oil in Iran for production of electricity, and there is no commercial reason for enriching uranium to the levels they have. Plenty of countries operate commercial nuclear reactors without Uranium enrichment. The Trump negotiations in Rome failed. The US was the carrot side of these negotiations, and Israel was the stick. I can’t see how these talks can possibly end in half measures, (like the 2015 deal). It’s either no enrichment and dump the centrifuges, or out comes the stick. As Akhtar Makoii reporting recently in “Iran risks US fury after increasing uranium stockpile” (Telegraph):
A new report from the UN nuclear watchdog revealed that Iran had added 133.8kg of uranium in the last three months, which, if enriched to 90 per cent, would be enough for three nuclear bombs. (Recent increase in uranium extraction)
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the Islamic Republic had increased its stockpile of 60 per cent enriched uranium to 408.6kg from 274.8kg in early February. (Doubling the uranium enrichment to 60% which is the weapons-grade uranium)
Tehran now has enough fissile material for 10 nuclear weapons, and the US estimates that it could be converted in less than two weeks. (Only 2 weeks to make 10 nuclear weapons) The accumulation has accelerated despite talks between the two aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for the potential lifting of sanctions.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has warned that any potential nuclear deal with the Trump administration could trigger a revolt within the elite military force, (probably explains why the IRGC commander was executed by Israel) The Telegraph understands. One senior official said: “The commanders have warned the leader that striking a deal with the current American government would risk losing support from a significant segment of society and provoke deep anger among IRGC commanders.”
3) Iran is definitely weakened. Israel has already breached Iranian air space with targeted strikes and Iran has only responded with hundreds of drone/strike ballistic missiles at Israel which could not penetrate the joint air defenses of Israel and the US. None of the Arab nations agree with Iran and many are set to join the Trump Accords. No more al-Assad, the Iranian proxies are debilitated. There’s no reason why negotiations can’t continue. Trump’s bargaining position just got a lot stronger.